Running Count vs. True Count, Explained Simply

The running count tells you which way the shoe is leaning. The true count tells you how much that lean is worth. Here's the difference in plain words.

Running count (Hi-Lo)

Hi-Lo gives every card a value: 2–6 are +1, 7–9 are 0, 10, J, Q, K and A are −1. Add them up as cards are dealt and you have the running count. A positive running count means more low cards have gone, so the remaining shoe is rich in tens and aces — good for the player.

True count

A running count of +6 means much more with one deck left than with six. So we divide by the decks remaining:

As a rough guide, each +1 of true count is worth about +0.5% to the player. An 8-deck game starts around −0.5%, so the true count needs to reach about +1 before the game turns in your favour.

Why the true count has an error range

Every miscounted or unseen card makes the true count wobble. If you miss a handful of cards in a shoe, the true count you think you have can easily be off by half a point or more — which is the same size as the step between betting levels.

That's why CountPilot always shows the true count with its ± range, and refuses to show one at all when it can't know where the shoe started (for example if you join a table mid-shoe). A confident-looking number that's wrong is worse than no number.

When does the count start to matter?

Early in an 8-deck shoe the true count rarely moves far from zero. It typically takes about a third of the shoe before counts of +2 or +3 become realistic — see why penetration matters.

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