16 vs 10, Insurance and Other Count-Based Plays
Basic strategy is right most of the time. A handful of plays change with the count — and two of them come up constantly.
16 against a dealer 10
Basic strategy says hit. With the Hi-Lo count, the index is 0: at a true count of 0 or higher, stand. Because 16 vs 10 is so common and true counts at or above 0 happen often, this single deviation is worth more than most others combined.
Insurance
Insurance pays 2:1, so it only makes sense when more than a third of the remaining cards are tens. A fresh shoe has 30.8%. That crosses one third at roughly true count +3. Below that, never take insurance — including "even money" on a blackjack.
Other common deviations
| Hand | Basic play | Change when true count is |
|---|---|---|
| 15 vs 10 | Hit | +4 or higher → stand |
| 10,10 vs 5 | Stand | +5 or higher → split |
| 10,10 vs 6 | Stand | +4 or higher → split |
| 10 vs 10 | Hit | +4 or higher → double |
| 12 vs 3 | Hit | +2 or higher → stand |
| 12 vs 2 | Hit | +3 or higher → stand |
| 11 vs A | Hit | +1 or higher → double |
| 9 vs 2 | Hit | +1 or higher → double |
These come from the well-known "Illustrious 18" Hi-Lo indices for multi-deck shoes.
When the count is too close to call
If the true count is 0.2 and your count could be off by ±0.7, the real value might be −0.5 (hit 16 vs 10) or +0.9 (stand). In that zone, the deviation is a coin flip — and you're better off simply playing basic strategy. CountPilot marks those situations as uncertain instead of pretending to know.
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